At the end of a short and bitter political campaign we finally have the results of this election run. There are three different results to evaluate: votes for the “Camera dei Deputati” (House of Representatives of Lower House), votes for the Senate and finally votes for the regional assemblies of Lazio, Lombardia and Molise (that will be available today in the evening). The first two results give the picture of the next national government, the latter are important too giving the political and economical weight of Lazio and Lombardia.
Camera dei Deputati (House of Representatives or Lower House)
Center-Left coalition (PD, Sel, CD, Svp) 340 seats
Center-right coalition (PdL, LN, seven other parties) 124 seats
Mario Monti coalition (Sc, UdC, FLI) 45 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 108
Result: absolute majority for the center-left coalition.
Center-Left coalition (PD, Sel, CD, Svp) 113 seats
Center-right coalition (PdL, LN, seven other parties) 116 seats
Mario Monti coalition (Sc, UdC, FLI) 18
Movimento 5 Stelle 54 seats
Result: no absolute majority (158 seats needed)
What will happen now?
The situation we got now is quite difficult to elaborate. In Italy any government we need a confermation vote in both houses and as you may see there is no coherent majority between Senate and House of Representatives. With this numbers it’s quite clear that it’s up to Pierluigi Bersani (leader of the center-left coalition) to form the new italian government from a minority position in Senate, that will be the first time ever in Italy. He will be appointed by italian president of the Republic, Mr. Giorgio Napolitano, shortly after a formal round of sessions with all the political leaders. The first challenge for Mr. Bersani will be to win more votes at the Senate on a reform program; that could come both from the senators of “Movimento 5 Stelle” and from their collegues from “Mario Monti coalition”. It is important to note that this time we will have far more women that before in both houses, that could be an important factor for the social issues this goverment will have to face in the next few months.
Who win this round?
The “Movimento 5 Stelle” party scores an impressive result, even more impressive for a party that got no real infrastrucure, a very light organization model and no political allies at all. This party will be the key factor at Senate and a very powerful influence in the parlamentary commissions. By popular consensus is the first party in Italy.
Who lose this round?
Mr. Silvio Berlusconi party, “Popolo delle Libertà” (PdL) lose millions of votes from the 2008 national elections, the same can be said for his allies “Lega Nord” (LN) that lose about half of its consensus (from a bit more 8% to the actual value of 4%). It is to be considered that a few weeks ago polls gave far worser numbers for both parties. Now Mr. Berlusconi will try to negotiate for a short-term government.
Mr. Mario Monti, incumbent PM, lose his bet for a new political party. He needed about 15% of the general consensus to be incisive in the next legislature and fall short from the intended target. Very short. His allies has been crushed (UdC and FLI), leaving him alone in the field. If Mr. Bersani and Mr. Grillo reach any kind of agreement then he’s out from all power plays.
Mr. Antonio Ingroia, leader of “Rivoluzione Civile”, is screaming blue murder about his failure to get enough votes to enter the national assembly. He blames Mr. Bersani, blames his allies, blames the media and the whole world. This round certfies the political death of four minor parties and the end of the political career of their leaders. For Mr. Ingroia it’s high time to go back to his previous work.
Mr. Oscar Giannino, leader of “Fare per fermare il declino”, has been burned out by a scandal shortly before this round. Bad news for a brand new party like this one and huge consequencies for its electoral results. They are out for good, with about 1% of the votes. They will decide what to do in the next few days, starting for the need of a different leadership.
Who is left in the middle?
Center-left coalition is on a very peculiar position. They control the lower house, Mr. Bersani is the first candidate for leadership of a new government. At the same time they lose an irrepetible choice to win national elections, due to a number of mistakes done in tha last two months. Mr. Bersani find a bitter end for a long and good political career, the party is shocked.