Some week ago I’ve dedicated a post about North Korea (here), the basic idea was that we have to consider this country as a problem to solve and not about a memory of the Cold War era. Nowadays DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, no pun intended) is everywhere in the news with no less than the menace of an all-out nuclear war against USA. Media have gone crazy about it and the Net follows the same path, with a number of people projecting this war scenario ’till a full-scale conflict with China, Russia and Japan involved. OK, it’s time to think. And to cool down. Look at those faces, they are the solution at this problem.
It’s true the DPRK is not new to insane announcements and war propaganda. It’s true that they are ready and willing to procure damage. Just think about what they did in 2010 (November, 23rd) with the artillery bombing of the island of Yeonpyong. From the 14:34 to the 16:42 we were on the brink of a real war between DPRK and South Korea. The reasons for this attack are still unknown. Some political observer claim that it was to show to the world that the growing importance of South Korea (due to economic factors) is to be considered in the light of its military weakness.
It’s also true that DPRK got enough, more than enough, radioactive materials to create atom bombs. They did a number of subterranean nuclear weapon test and, thanks to China and Russia, they got a grade of deploying capability with their missiles. We know that for sure? Yes and no. They sold missiles to a number of nations, always with the chinese authorization, and perform a variety of tests of different kind of vectors; so. it’s a “yes” about missiles. We’re not so sure that their nuclear weapons are ready to be used with those missiles; here is the “no”.
What we do not know at all is how many missiles they have and what kind of missiles are already deployed, ready to be fired. It’s an acquired notion that they can hit South Korea and Japan, the grade of accuracy and MOE are disputed between weapon experts. The long-range missiles are two or three stage rockets and the public tests have shown a number of technical failures; this is the visible effect of the international commerce ban enforced on DPRK by the UNO.
So, its’ true that DPRK can start a war against South Korea. They can bomb Japan, too. But hitting Guam, Hawaii or Alaska? I’m not so sure about it. The real problem is that any serious attack, not to mention an attempt to invade South Korea, will force the USA to react. The harder the attack, the strongest the american response. This is the real deal and the main reason for chinese to stop this suicidal stand-off.
Any ABC attack, once released, is not limited by borders or the will of a man. A strong wind is more than enough to spread a contamination for many kilometers, for a range that can reach India and China. That will be very, very, bad for business. China is not in a position to accept that. This is where the train stops. And money is the main problem at the start of this crisis. What DPRK leaders want is not compete for international power and/or to affirm their supremacy in Asia. They want their money back from the congealed assets abroad, blocked by international sanctions. They want to be free to live a luxury life, well away from the eyes of their own population.
It’s all about money.