Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen, are you ready for another dirty little war? A new conflict will start before the end of this week so be sure to have enough popcorn and soda for the non-stop flow of TV shows about that. Now, it’s time to get some information.
Geography lesson – Middle East 101.
Where the hell is Syria? Check out the map and place some reference. It’s another of those strange countries in the Middle East, with a total population of 22.5 million.
Political situation – Middle East 101.
All right, we got the basic villain here. Bashar al-Assad is the ruler, with support from Russia and Iran. A pity that there is no democratic antagonist in sight, but a rabble of hundreds of different movements (with more than a bit of Al-Quaeda inspired groups).
New words of the day: casus belli. These are two latin words that means “reason for war”.
The Red Line.
President Obama stated that the use of chemichal weapons was the “red line”, so to speak the casus belli for a military intervention in Syria. Somebody crossed that line, Department of State say they got evidence that the bad guy is al-Assad (this could be the first YouTube-triggered war).
A great comeback.
Guess what, there will not be a UN resolution to authorize this war. What a strange thing. Russia will oppose its veto against any attack under the UN flag, China is hostile as well. The NATO treaty is not useful until one of the member states is under attack. The time is right for a great comeback: the coalition of the willing. Invented by Karl Rove under Bush Jr. presidential authority, this label will cover a short-time alliance with UK and France, maybe with a symbolic support from Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
What will happen now?
Three of four days of bombing, choosing targets with great care. Military airports, C4I structures, a bit of public buildings. In the first day or so it will be a matter of Tomahawk and electronic counter-measures (ECM), there are a number of SAM sites that are quite dangerous (russian made S300) that have to be suppressed before deploying F16 and F18 all over the country. What we will not see it’s the weapon and ammo transports (from Turkey and Jordan) that will help some of the rebels to gain the upper hand in the next few months.
What will happen now? (2)
Russia and Iran (via Hezbollah, from Lebanon) will retaliate selling more weapons to the Syrian government and sending more people under cover in the country. Don’t be surprised by more missile launch from the Gaza strip and from West Bank in the direction of Israel. Of course there will be an armed response and so on and on… keep an eye on the Persian Gulf too, something will be done there by Iranians to show that they’re still a treath.
What will happen now? (3)
EU will show once again a total lack of foreign policy. A great number of protest will be held and more syrian citizens will be drawn away from their homes. Since the start of this civil war there were about 100,000 casualties and about two millions refugees. This little war show will change nothing.
Note: this post has been written in a sarcastic mode. Sarcasm is defined here.