What will happen in Cuba?


So it’s over. The longest embargo in the U.S. history and, quite probably, the most useless series of economical measures ever applied to a single country has finally come to an end. It took the combined efforts of a Pope, an American President like Barack Obama and an old communist warhorse to reach this moment. It’s maybe the last strain of the Cold War and the end of a struggle started back in 1959, when Cuba overthrow the Batista regime for a new government.

It will useful to know what really thinks the last leader of that era, Fidel Castro, about this moment. Or to know exactly how about were that secret talks in Canada and in Vatican, done in the last year or so.  What are the terms of this diplomatic treaty? What could be the future of Cuba? If this was a book by a spy-master, somebody like John le Carrè or Frederick Forsyth, you may see the shadows of three generations of spooks, along with dark crime lords and the tragic silhouette of the refugees.

But this is reality, we have to live without the grace of a well-written story. Cuba has been conquered by western-style economics many years ago, shortly after the fall of the USSR. European groups and South American cartels invested heavily, in order to create dozens of hotels and residences, playhouse and unofficial brothels. The socialist government is still in place, and instruction levels are still the best of the whole area, but the dream of different society is long-time dead.

So, what now? How to reconcile the hardcore refugees and their persecutors? Will the investments of the US travel industry pave way for a better understanding? Or will it be any baseball star player to show a way to step over the past? A thing to consider is the new oder of challenges that Cuba will face from now, all on their weak side: economics. Without the political alibi of the American embargo, without the oil from Venezuela, with the global crisis that keep low the number of European tourists, what will do Raul Castro?

And now, some useful link to dig into this arguments.

This is from US Department of State, always a good source for analysis

Cuba: Human Rights

And this the debut book of Julia Cooke, a young and talented journalist

The Other Side of Paradise: Life in the New Cuba

From two good writers, William M. LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh, an hindsight in the shadows.

Back Channel to Cuba: The Hidden History of Negotiations between Washington and Havana

Something about the embargo, from Jason R. Old

Cuba: Behind the Embargo

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