The Czar, the Sultan and the Uncle Sam

As predicted, things are getting hairy all over again in Syria, a place where too many conflicts are going on. The casus belli this time is the little town of Manbij, in the northern part of the country. Actually is controlled by Kurds, with logistic support from the US. Russians and Americans found themselves together against the will of the Turkish government to seize the town, a move that greatly enraged the leadership of this regional power. Check here the story, from Stars and Stripes.

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The War Is Not Over (2)

Ukraine orthographic map

There are many conflicts that are out of the media beat, including the ongoing confrontation in Ukraine between national government, Russian-sponsored separatist and Russian armed forces. Said conflict is in progress since 2014, with a significant portion of Ukraine – the Crimea region – de facto annexed by Russia in spite of every international treaty.

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Europe, it’s now or never

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One of the most important consequences of the beginning of the Trump presidency is that the last pillar of the old European diplomacy is gone. The new POTUS openly dislikes NATO, will support a new age of economic protectionism (Buy American! Anybody out there remembers this catch phrase?) and is ready to redesign the US foreign policy.

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The Pendulum swings to the right

pendulum

The political pendulum is swinging to the right side in Europe, the real deal now is to understand to what extent and to what consequences.
In the last ten years, the far right-wing parties in the Old-and-not-so-merry continent are booming and it’s quite likely that we will see one or more of the biggest countries in Europe going full throttle in that direction in a matter of five or fewer years. Bookmark the next round of presidential elections in France (2017) and the general political elections in Germany (also 2017) to check out what will become the European future.

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Brexit – the day after

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All right, here we are. The UK held the exit-or-leave referendum and democracy worked again. Like it or not, UK leaves the EU and we’re in a new day, waiting for the future to happen.

What will happen now? Prime Minister David Cameron will accomplish to the article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (see HERE) giving communication of the results of the referendum to the European Council. From that day, a two-year term starts and at the end of that term, if nothing else happens, every EU treaty subscription from the UK will be declared void. If the UK government starts to negotiate with the EU Commission about the said treaties, this period will be extended for the time needed. Cameron could ask to differ the start of said two-years period to October 2016 – in order to hand over the PM duties to a new leader.

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Brexit – what will change?

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The forthcoming UK’s referendum about the future of the permanence inside the EU of the United Kingdom is important for all the other countries inside such union and for the perspective of the nations that are considering to enter the EU.
No country opted out before and the future choice of the UK citizens will open a door to unknown lands. There’s no procedure to follow, no legal precedents and no historic references to use. EU is not an alliance based on strategical/military agreements like NATO, nor it’s a short list of economic matters.

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