Italian politics 2013 – sunset boulevard for Mr. Berlusconi

The huge political losses of 2012 and 2013 causes a major break in the center-right field, consumed by scandals and left in a hurry for a new start. The main problem is still the same from the 1993; in Italy there is no real Tory party nor a right-wing party with no ties at all with the sad legacy of Fascism.

Silvio Berlusconi

Silvio Berlusconi

The main party of the center-right field is the “Popolo delle Libertà” (PdL), a formation owned by the notorius Mr. Silvio Berlusconi. PdL got a strong cut in its consensus in the 2013 elections (-47%) and for many of the prominent members of this party are ready and willing to start an internal power struggle. With the perspective of at least five years away from power and a lot of judiciary problems to front, for Mr. Berlusconi it’s “sunset boulevard time”. The old leader (he will turn 77 this year) holds the party by the means of his money and for the media he controls, two major assests that can be both endangered by his problems with the law. It looks like a number of his men in the national parlament are evaluating to run away, looking for a more stable future. A collapse of PdL will leave a major breach in this side of the political field.

For the “Lega Nord” (LN) party it’s high time to reconsider leadership and the future of this movement. Mr. Roberto Maroni, acting leader in the last year, get the victory for of the local government of Lombardia. That was a political milestone for LN, their political campaign was mainly based on the idea of a macro region in the northern part of Italy with the aggregation of Piemonte (already governed by center-right coalition and with a LN governor) and Veneto (same situation of Piemonte). After a 2012 dominated by scandals and a change of leadership (from Umberto Bossi to Roberto Maroni) the electoral base of LN is deeply enraged with the top levels of the party, that gives room for a strong demand of change. the party lost about half of its consensus this year. LN is on the edge of a possible break-up, with the Veneto-based “Liga Veneta” that could become a new party of his own (more open to integrate other political forces) with a strong leader like Mr. Flavio Tosi.

Roberto Maroni

Roberto Maroni

The right-wing field is currently split in four parties. The new formation “Fratelli d’Italia” (FdI) do not reach its full political potential and the result of this elections can be judged as poor. This year we be very important for FdI; if they use this time to enlarge their presence in the country and act as a new home for who will escape from PdL they will be on the right track (no pun intended) to set up a conservative party, if they choose to be inclusive of the far-right movements they will slowly become irrilevant.

For another party, “La Destra” (LD), there is a bitter mix of satisfaction for the renewed consensus and regret for the failed objective of winning the local election in the Lazio region. The leadership of this party is not to be challenged in the near future but it looks quite difficult for LD to expand their electoral base. This factor and a five year period away from power positions could be causes for some shift in the consensus, both in the direction of far-right movements and in the direction of other right-wing parties like FdI. In the same game there are the two main far-right parties, “Forza Nuova” (FN) and “Casa Pound” (CP). FN and CP got a strong hold on the far-right oriented electors but at the same time got no real choice to grow and to collect more consensus. They are both confined by the heritage of Fascism, a factor that guarantees a strong identity at the price of a small electoral base.

With such a general situation the center-right field will face a great turmoil in the next few years. There are no new big leaders, neither the premises of a real change. The path for a modern Tory party in Italy could get a real start only after the demise of Mr. Berlusconi and that is not likely to happen in a matter of few months or a year.

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Italian regional elections 2013 – the results

In the aftermath of the general elections of this year we got other data to evaluate, this time about the regional elections for Lazio, Lombardia and Molise. In Italy every region got a degree of autonomy when it comes to very important matters like public health system, schools, welfare and so on.

It is important to remember that absolute majority is not required to win, the most voted candidate will prevail. The winner’s results is highlighted in red.

These are the results:


Francesco Storace (center-right) 29.3%

Nicola Zingaretti (center-left) 40.7%

Davide Barillari (Movimento 5 Stelle) 20.2%

Giulia Bongiorno (Monti coalition) 4.7%

Alessandro Ruotolo (Rivoluzione Civile) 2.2%

Alessandra Baldassari (Fare per fermare il declino) 0.6%


Roberto Maroni (center-right) 42.8%

Umberto Ambrosoli (center-left) 38.2%

Silvana Carcano (Movimento 5 Stelle) 13.6%

Gabriele Albertini (Monti coalition) 4.1%

Carlo Pinardi (Fare per fermare il declino) 1.2%


Michele Iorio (center-right) 25.8%

Paolo Frattura (center-left) 44.7%

Antonio Federico (Movimento 5 Stelle) 16.8%

Antonio De Lellis (Riv. Democratica) 1.1 %

Massimo Romano (Costruire Democrazia) 11,0%

Camillo Colella (Lavoro Sport Sociale) 0.6%


Center-left coalition win in Lazio and Molise but fail to conquer Lombardia that remain under the center-right local government. With no need for an absolute majority the good performance of “Movimento 5 Stelle” is not enough to enforce local agreements. Now the focus will shift to local competitions, including very important cities like Roma. All the winning candidates got more votes than their coalitions, a clear indication of how much it’s important to choose a prominent member of a party, well exposed to the media.

The winners.

Mr. Roberto Maroni got the game of his life with this victory. After the hard fall of his party, “Lega Nord”, in the general elections (they got roughly half of the votes of 2008) his only choice was to win in Lombardia. The party is still under shock, with huge rumors about the need of a new leadership. For Mr. Maroni now the challenge is to form a local government that marks a strong difference from the past president Mr. Formigoni without causing a setback with the allies of  “Popolo della Libertà”.

For Mr. Nicola Zingaretti, new governor of Lazio, this victory could lead in the next years to a national challenge inside the “Partito Democratico”. Before that he got to face a very hard situation in Lazio, a region plagued by an huge debt and left in political rubbles by former governor Ms. Polverini. A five year period as Lazio governor is one of the hardest political challenges now in Italy, a real battle to win for Mr. Zingaretti.

Mr. Paolo Frattura got a victory that squares once for all two years of controversy. In 2011 Mr. Frattura lost the competition for 828 votes against past governor Mr. Iorio, with the bitter satisfaction to see that victory crushed a few months later by a scandal about irregularities related to the elections. With a clear mandate from his fellow citizens now Mr. Frattura got to try to help Molise solve its problems, with a hard legacy of enviromental matters.

The losers.

Mr. Umberto Ambrosoli did his best. He knows how it will be difficult to win enough consensus in a region like Lombardia and again, he knows well how small were his choices to use the arguments of common sense against the outcries of populism. His final result, 38.2%, shows in the best way that even the italian richest region wasn’t ready for a pragmatic choice. Nice try.

Mr. Francesco Storace is an old wolf of italian politics. A former Lazio governor, a long time public face for the right-wing parties, he perfectly knows that this challenge was a desperate one. A result of 29.3% in a region like Lazio, usually deployed in the center-right political field, is well under target. Mr. Storace will be under the media spot for the next five years, a good position to challenge his many opponents in the national politics.

Mr. Michele Iorio got a serious problem now. After many years of power he’s on the need to defend himself in a number of legal issues, leaving a local political power system orphan of its former owner. It’s an easy bet to say that, from now on, he will be more busy in the court than in politics. His main political sponsor, Mr. Berlusconi, is too much involved in his own problems to assist him again.

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