Photo by Anthony Quintano
So be it, we have a final result. Donald Trump is the 45th President of the United States of America and the GOP get a solid majority in Senate and in the House of Representatives. America turned “red” big time, we can say that next year will start a new era for the American politics.
In this final TV debate, mostly dedicated to foreign policy, the upper hand goes straight for Obama. It’s well known that this is the weak side for Romney and the republican candidate has been caught many times in trouble, even giving his approvation to some of the president’s own choices.
Obama looks coherent, competent and influential fullfilling his role as commander in chief. His only mistake stands on the missed opportunity to nail his opponent down, the democrat candidate seems at a loss when it comes to draw the final punch.
Romney try harder, speaking about economics, to win back the confidence he needs to win the elections and uses every opportunity hw could find to score some good point. Once again Obama reacts well but almost missed the choice to draw away some pressure usign the many contradictions of his opponent.
The audience was huge and the first polls show good results for Obama, in the next few days more polls will tell if the democrats have closed the gap. Swinging states are always the strongest factor in the 2012 elections but some observer adds to the list states like North Carolina, raising the stakes for the november race.
My virtual money stays on Obama, still with a narrow margin of victory.
The second TV debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan has been almost a draw. I’ve assigned the victory to Ryan for two reasons; first, his good reactions when Biden landed a couple of hard shots and for second, because he did understand when to remain silent. It’s never easy to be in full view, knowing that every word, every expression and every move will be debated and monitored by the press and the audience. Biden got far more experience in that kind of game and he used every bit of it to challenge Ryan, pushing hard on the economy and about the role of the USA in the world.
Biden got often over the voice of Ryan, forcing the impression of a mentor who correct an inexperienced youngster. That will work for the mature part of the audience, who are likely attracted by the VP figure, but can’t work for everybody. Ryan put up his “good guy face” and stand his ground, looking for an opportunity to strike back when it cames to the weakest spots for the democrats. That gives us a good match, maybe better than the first, with a better insight for important issues of this campaign.
Ryan has been more effective when it cames to economy, using his well known agenda for a lighter government and tax cuts. Nothing new, republicans used almost the same words since the ’80s, but the feeling I got from his speech is something more than a gut sensation. Paul Ryan is here to stay, no matter what happens in the 2012 campaign. If Romney wins he’s the natural for the 2020 campaign, if he loses he will try in 2016. Of course Biden gives a different image, he’s on the sunset boulevard no matter who wins this year.
The polls will tell us what kind of impact this debate got over the consensus, my opinion is that there will be no significant shift.
My virtual money is still on Obama, for a victory with narrower margins. Wanna bet?
Angelo Benuzzi 