The war against ISIL is not over. While the mainstream media are busy with Donald Trump and Theresa May, the multilateral conflict against ISIL rages on with uncertain results. The black flag of the insurgents is still up in Syria and Iraq (not to mention an unknown number of their members who escaped from Libya and are still unaccounted for). At the present day, we have five different battles going on between ISIL and various aggregation of allied forces with no end in sight. It looks like that the end of the self-proclaimed caliphate is still far from reality.
One of the most important consequences of the beginning of the Trump presidency is that the last pillar of the old European diplomacy is gone. The new POTUS openly dislikes NATO, will support a new age of economic protectionism (Buy American! Anybody out there remembers this catch phrase?) and is ready to redesign the US foreign policy.
Words are important, so choosing the right word for the current situation in Syria is a way to anticipate my position. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, a simple definition of deadlock is:
a situation in which an agreement cannot be made : a situation in which ending a disagreement is impossible because neither side will give up something that it wants.
The UNO goes on, issuing every now and then documents about the situation in Syria.
Recently I’ve received this one, titled “70/234. Situation of human rights in the Syrian Arab
Republic” (HERE); of course the said document is very bureaucratic, full of references with past
resolutions and contains little data.
In the second page, you can read this:
Expressing outrage at the continuing escalation of violence in the Syrian Arab Republic, which has caused more than 250,000 fatalities, including the killing of many more than 10,000 children, and in particular at the continued widespread and systematic gross violations, as well as abuses, of human rights and violations of international humanitarian law, including those involving the continued
indiscriminate use of heavy weapons and aerial bombardments, such as the indiscriminate use of ballistic missiles, cluster munitions, barrel and vacuum bombs and chlorine gas, and the starvation of civilians as a method of combat, which are prohibited under international humanitarian law, by the Syrian authorities against the Syrian population
In short, a quarter million dead and use of weapons of mass destruction. Against the Syrian people from the Syrian authorities (and the Russians, too).
A week ago or so an European music contest gave its first prize to an Austrian drag queen. It’s a very simple thing, no reason at all for any kind of unrest – let alone public protests and diplomatic notes, isn’t it?
Well, it looks like this is enough. Austria was criticized for its decision to select such a candidate for the contest, a massive number of negative considerations / comments flew thru the social media and, after the drag queen’s victory of the final round of the contest, an official note from Russia’s foreign minister was sent to the media – expressing deep concern for such a frivolous matter.
The recent struggle between Ukraine and Russia underlined once more a lot of misconceptions about Vladimir Putin, Russia’s foreign policy and the ways to confront in a workable way acts like the invasion of Crimea. The basic idea of portraying Putin like an old-style russian hard case, somebody who will try to set a new USSR, is so deeply wrong to be almost humoristic. Almost.
This world is gonna change again in the next few years, driven by economic challenges and by the different needs of geopolitical big players. Here’s a brief summary about the major operations:
TAFTA, the Transatlantic Free Trade Area; will force an alliance between NAFTA countries (USA, Canada, Mexico) and EU, preceded by a massive revision of national and international economic policies about agriculture, OGM, steel production, value fluctuation of currencies and so on.
Russia-China, money for oil/gas/coal; Russia desperately needs to invest billions of USD to develop its oil/gas/coal industry, to explore the artic fields and to upgrade its refineries. China needs more and more energy every year, with enourmous mass of money ready to be invested. Advanced trade agreements are already in place.
Turkey as a regional power; it’s already on the move, Turkey sphere of influence covers Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Armenia, Moldova, Azerbaijan. The future challenge is to confront Israel and Iran on different grounds, in order to expand its influence over Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. It’s an hard game, both on religious and geopolitical sides.
India and its future development; this asian giant will face dramatic changes in a matter of a decade. The need for deep and shocking reforms can’t be delayed anymore with about one billion citizens who are on the edge of a society collapse. The original caste order will not last long, not with Dalit on rampage and the pressure given from the sheer existence of western models of society. The industrial system got to evolve too, in order to avoid the current level of pollution and to raise its salary capacity.
As you may see, each and every one of this operations got serious consequences for geopolical and economic stability of our world. This decade will be remembered.