The Czar, the Sultan and the Uncle Sam

As predicted, things are getting hairy all over again in Syria, a place where too many conflicts are going on. The casus belli this time is the little town of Manbij, in the northern part of the country. Actually is controlled by Kurds, with logistic support from the US. Russians and Americans found themselves together against the will of the Turkish government to seize the town, a move that greatly enraged the leadership of this regional power. Check here the story, from Stars and Stripes.

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The Syrian Deadlock

syria

Words are important, so choosing the right word for the current situation in Syria is a way to anticipate my position. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, a simple definition of deadlock is:
a situation in which an agreement cannot be made : a situation in which ending a disagreement is impossible because neither side will give up something that it wants.

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The rise of a Sultan

recep-tayyip-erdogan

Look at this man. His name is Recep Tayyip Erdogan, current president of Turkey. From my point of view, we can start calling him Recep the first, Sultan of Turkey.

Of course, Mr. Erdogan did not claim such a title, nor we currently have any political party in Turkey that are proposing such a change in the institutions of their country. Not yet.

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Golpe failure – why Erdogan is still in charge

Daniel__s_Facepalm_by_xAikaNoKurayami

Just a fast one, a thought about the failure of last night’s golpe in Turkey; you already know the story, don’t you? A number of mid-ranking officers of the Turkish Army tried to seize power in the country, with all the classic cliches well displayed.

Road blocks, tanks roaming the streets, parliament house and national television put under control and the old message “we are saving the country from a certain doom, democracy will be repristinated ASAP“. In the shadows, looking around to understand the direction of the political wind, all the big players of the country – waiting for the better time to show up.

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What if Iran find a way to stop UAV?

Last november, in 2012, Iran captured an advanced american UAV (RQ-170 “Sentinel“) on its territory; that was quite embarrassing for USAF, the unmanned aircraft was captured intact ant the potential for a technological leak was a real threat. Many hypothesis were considered about how Iranians could get their hands on an intact drone and no official statement has been done from USAF about it.

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Future Shocks

GEOPOLITICS

This world is gonna change again in the next few years, driven by economic challenges and by the different needs of geopolitical big players. Here’s a brief summary about the major operations:

TAFTA, the Transatlantic Free Trade Area; will force an alliance between NAFTA countries (USA, Canada, Mexico) and EU, preceded by a massive revision of national and international economic policies about agriculture, OGM, steel production, value fluctuation of currencies and so on.

Russia-China, money for oil/gas/coal; Russia desperately needs to invest billions of USD to develop its oil/gas/coal industry, to explore the artic fields and to upgrade its refineries. China needs more and more energy every year, with enourmous mass of money ready to be invested. Advanced trade agreements are already in place.

Turkey as a regional power; it’s already on the move, Turkey sphere of influence covers Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Armenia, Moldova, Azerbaijan. The future challenge is to confront Israel and Iran on different grounds, in order to expand its influence over Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. It’s an hard game, both on religious and geopolitical sides.

India and its future development; this asian giant will face dramatic changes in a matter of a decade. The need for deep and shocking reforms can’t be delayed anymore with about one billion citizens who are on the edge of a society collapse. The original caste order will not last long, not with Dalit on rampage and the pressure given from the sheer existence of western models of society. The industrial system got to evolve too, in order to avoid the current level of pollution and to raise its salary capacity.

NEW OIL zones

As you may see, each and every one of this operations got serious consequences for geopolical and economic stability of our world. This decade will be remembered.