The political pendulum is swinging to the right side in Europe, the real deal now is to understand to what extent and to what consequences.
In the last ten years, the far right-wing parties in the Old-and-not-so-merry continent are booming and it’s quite likely that we will see one or more of the biggest countries in Europe going full throttle in that direction in a matter of five or fewer years. Bookmark the next round of presidential elections in France (2017) and the general political elections in Germany (also 2017) to check out what will become the European future.
Why France? Well, the socialist party is on its knees and the so-called centrist will likely candidate the former president Sarkozy, in that scenario Marine Le Pen will get the best possible shot to become the next president. With the leadership of the Front Nationale, it’s easy to predict that France will change a number of its politics, both in and out the European Union.
Why Germany? Present-day PM Angela Merkel is falling like a brick in the polls and the right-wing party, Alternative für Deutschland, is rising fast in the general consensus, basically to the expenses of the CDU-CSU. With the SPD also falling behind, the idea of a third “Grosse Koalition” government with CDU-CSU and SPD is getting more and more difficult. Any government with AFD on board will likely see major changes in its politics, both in and out the European Union.
The present European picture is already shifted to the right side. Think about Poland, about Hungary and take a closer look what’s going on in the former Yugoslavian countries (Slovenia and Croatia). Come again, in the northern Europe the right-wing parties are on the full rise.
The main drive for this change is given by two major causes; fear of social changes, driven by immigration, and economic downsizing – a blatant result of a decade of wrong economic policies sponsored by ECB and IMF. Both causes can be linked to external problems, being that people incoming from abroad and decisions made by European bureaucrats, adding weight to the perception of something that drives unwelcome changes to the society. Fear and poverty call for some form of direct resolution, for a strong stance against the perceived enemy, hence the shift toward right-wing parties.
The real problem is not about the need for a change that is so commonly felt amongst the European continent. It’s about the solutions. So far, the right-wing parties all around the Old Continent get a very confuse agenda of principles. Nationalism and protectionism sound good on paper but are quite difficult to become common practice if a country had subscribed a number of international treaties in the past.
So the shift is toward the Brexit theme, a repulse of the European Union – now turned to some kind of grey-faced enemy, a mob of tech-driven entities hungry for money and freedom.
Under this kind of pressure, the EU may implode and reach a break-up, with undisclosed consequences. What about the Euro currency? What about all the development projects?
What about a ton of EU-derived laws and directives?
Another unpredictable turnaround of this shift is about separatism. Scotland and North Ireland are already on the political warpath against the UK, Catalunya is doing bolder steps toward independence from Spain, the situation in Belgium may lead to a break-up and the tormented land of Bosnia-Herzegovina could split anytime. Strong-arm nationalism and separatism are unlikely to find a common ground, aren’t they?
Without a common objective, without EU organisms as Frontex and Europol, what will become of the immigration-related problems? If any EU country resolved for a forceful re-entry of the economic-driven immigrants, what will happen to the other countries? We already have an ongoing situation in Hungary and it’s likely that we will have some more anytime soon in the former Warsaw Pact countries.
In short, this political transition is likely to be quite rough. Europe, as a common subject, is at stake. It’s a safe bet (pun intended) that economic / financial speculation will also be on the rise, as always happen when there’s some form of turmoil. The outlook of the next few years is getting darker, with too many problems on the table and no real solutions in sight.
Angelo Benuzzi 